A win probability is the chance, from 0 to 100%, that you give a Prospective project of being won. Pondria multiplies that project's booked hours and its value by the percentage, so a prospect at 40% adds 40% of its hours and 40% of its revenue to every weighted forecast. Confirmed and Active projects count in full, while the Capacity page keeps showing every booking at its full hours so you can see who is actually booked.
Setting a win probability
Only a project with the status Prospective has a win probability you set yourself. You set it in the project form under "Win probability", with a slider, a number box, or the preset buttons for 25, 50, 75 and 90. When you switch a project to Prospective, the value starts at 50%.
On the Pipeline page, each prospective card shows a badge such as "60% win". Owners and Managers can click the badge to change the percentage in place, and a Manager can save that change on projects that belong to their teams. Every change to a status or a win probability is recorded in the project's history. When a win probability has not changed for more than 30 days, the card asks "Still 60%? It hasn't changed in a while." as a reminder to check it.
Choosing "Mark as confirmed" sets the win probability to 100%. Any other status (Active, Completed, On hold or Cancelled) clears it.
How the weighting works
Every weighted figure in Pondria follows one rule.
| Status | Counts for |
|---|---|
| Prospective | its win probability |
| Confirmed, Active | 100% |
| Completed, On hold, Cancelled | nothing |
Weighted hours are the hours booked on a prospective project multiplied by its win probability. Weighted revenue depends on the project's pricing model.
- For a Time and materials project, it is the booked hours times the booking's billable rate (or the project's default billable rate when the booking has none), times the win probability.
- For a Fixed price project, it is the contract value spread across the project's start and end dates, times the win probability.
Take a Time and materials prospect at 40% with 100 hours booked at a rate of 100 per hour. It adds 40 weighted hours and 4,000 in weighted revenue. Raise it to 60% and those become 60 hours and 6,000.
A Time and materials prospect with nobody booked on it adds nothing yet. For an Owner, its Pipeline card reads "Not yet planned". A Fixed price prospect counts as soon as it has a contract value and dates, even before anyone is booked. Each currency keeps its own totals.
Where the weighted numbers appear
- On the Overview, the "Work against capacity by week" chart stacks Committed work and the Weighted pipeline against capacity, with a dashed outline for "If everything lands". The "What may land, and when" chart places each prospect by its planned start and its win probability, and the Revenue section shows expected revenue for the next 4 and 12 weeks.
- On the Pipeline page, each card shows its weighted value for the chosen horizon next to its unweighted Project total. The "Weighted pipeline revenue" widget adds these up over the next 30, 90 or 180 days, or a custom range.
- On the Analytics page, the Planned revenue tab separates committed revenue from "Prospective (weighted)". The Revenue outlook tab draws Committed, Expected and Upside month by month, and "How many people do we need?" on the Workforce tab compares Committed, Expected and Full pipeline demand with the people available.
- On the Projects page, the "Win %" column shows the share each project counts for.
The three revenue lines are explained in why the forecast shows three numbers.
Where prospects count in full
The views that show how busy people are count bookings exactly as they are. The Capacity page adds up every booking at its full hours, whatever the project's status, and its "About capacity" panel says so. The same full-hours basis drives "People over capacity", "Open to plan" and "Load over the quarter" on the Overview. A person booked on a 30% prospect can therefore still show as over capacity. Read more in why someone is over-allocated.
Who sees win probabilities and money
- Owners and Managers always see win probabilities and revenue.
- Members see them only when an Owner sets "Pipeline revenue" to "All members" under Financial visibility, on the General tab of the organization settings. The default is "Managers & owners", and with it Members see the Pipeline page without percentages or values. A Member's Overview shows their own plan and never the pipeline or revenue.
- Viewers never see a win probability or any money, whatever the setting. A Viewer is given access to specific projects and sees only the Overview and Projects pages. See which projects a Viewer can see.